Bob’s Blog (CEO Cairngorm Mountain Limited) Continues:
You may be surprised by snow fall records
The fact is that the amount of snow falling at Cairn Gorm each winter over almost half a century, has been fairly consistent, in other words there has been no noticeable reduction in snow fall during this period. This may come as a surprise to some as there is no doubt that there is a perception that we get less snow than we used to. Of course this is only half the story; where we are seeing changes is in the length of time the snow stays around, particularly on the lower parts of the middle runs, which are the most popular at Cairn Gorm for intermediate/advanced skiing. What brought this to my attention were excerpts from a draft dissertation about Met Office trends for Cairn Gorm, by Jamie Munro. If you are interested in this you can contact Jamie at [J.R.C.Munro@sms.ed.ac.uk]. One of the other unexpected changes that Jamie’s data is showing is an overall reduction in wind speed…. interesting. This may help to explain why the gullies have not tended to fill up as much as the old days. I have attached a couple of his graphs for interest below. 
What does all this mean for the prospects of good skiing on the mountain? Scottish skiing has always been marginal, it’s just that the good times are not as frequent as they used to be and that makes the business model much harder to deliver. However there is no doubt in my mind that we will continue to get good snow and there will be times when the weather patterns allow us to enjoy the very best of Scottish skiing from time to time. We ask a lot from our weather – for the best chance of good skiing there needs to be a set sequence of the right conditions. First we need it to snow; traditionally our best snow comes from an occluded front often from the South-West. We need the wind to fill the gullies and provide a base that can survive a few days of milder weather. Then we need the wind to drop and the temperature to stay low for as long as possible so that we can enjoy the skiing, followed by more snow and more wind….. What we have been experiencing is snow, quite often not with the wind, followed immediately by warm winds - what we call the hair dryer! With the snow comes all the work to get the ski area open as fast as possible, as well as communicating these rapid changes to our customers . The company spends a lot of time and effort in trying to do this only then to loose the snow, the customers and any business benefit. Covering these basic costs is becoming increasingly challenging. We are often compared to Alpine resorts where there is a far more stable climate and customer base … but we remain determined to make the best of what we have. Given these current climatic fluctuations, snow making would be a very high risk investment, we have not written this off and will come back to this in a future Blog.
I make no apologies for going on about the weather, at the end of the day it provides our livelihood. This week has been fairly typical, I am sure there are other businesses, apart from skiing, that rely on the right conditions and when the weather does not behave it can be extremely disappointing for both our visitors and the staff. Imagine operating a large department store in Oxford Street and gearing up to open on Boxing Day. All the staff arrive, there are queues of people waiting outside and then at the last minute you can’t open. Well that was our Boxing Day this year - with winds gusting over 100mph, potentially one of the busiest days of the year turned into another exercise in managing disappointment. Not only are our customers disappointed, it’s very hard for the staff as well as news our bank manager does not want to hear! The ultimate loosers are Scottish skiers, as the only way Scottish skiing will remain sustainable is to ensure the ski areas can operate profitably even when the snow does not stay. But, losing a couple of days to storms in December is not unusual and today the wind has dropped a bit and we have some fresh snow. As we look towards the weekend it promises to be colder and snowier and there is every chance we will get some great skiing in this winter.
With best wishes for 2008!
Bob
PS The web cam gremlins continue to thwart our best efforts to get frequent updates. We continue to work on this as the one of our highest priorities and thank you for your patience. we know how important they are.
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January 4th, 2008 at 8:08 am
Interesting stuff on the weather - and good to hear that the slopes are starting to fill up again. Look forward to good reports and a visit later in February. Keep the pressure on the techies to sort the webcams - it great to actually see what the conditions look like before committing to the long journey up from the deep south! Best…
January 7th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
brittany snow age…
Man i love reading your blog, interesting posts !…
January 7th, 2008 at 3:31 pm
Dear Bob,
I was reading your blog on the Cairngorm website and noticed your discussion about Jamie Munro’s dissertation. You may remember that I visited you last December to get some skiing data and I subsequently wrote my dissertation on the effects of wind on the scottish ski industry. I realised I didnt get round to sending you a copy so I have attached an electronic version of it to this email.
The results were very interesting. As Jamie pointed out, wind speeds in Scotland have been declining, contrary to all the climate change disaster type scenarios that the media and organisations like to lead us to believe. The trend is evident at the three Ski centre weather stations and most sea level stations, although the Met Office chooses to ignore the significance of these patterns. The nature of the wind has changed too, with average maximum gusts and maximum gusts decreasing. I also looked at the effects of high winds on skiing at Cairngorm and Nevis Range. Although data was quite limited, I demonstrated that high winds can cause up to 38% of the ’snow-covered’ ski season to be lost at Cairngorm (based on the top basin tows operating), very significant considering the sometimes unreliable nature of snow cover. Slightly less disruption is experienced at Nevis.
Wind speeds were compared to variations in the NAO index and some interesting correlations were observed, it appears that wind speeds in the Western Highlands are more sensitive to this phenomenon than Eastern ranges. Also of particular interest is the 2000-2001 season, which was one of the best in recent times. It exhibited excellent snow cover and also significantly lower average windspeeds, representing the perfect scenario for skiing in Scotland.
I believe that my results are important for our understanding of the skiing industry in Scotland. Cairngorm gets plenty of snow for skiing most years, at least up top in the Ptarmigan bowl area. The extent to which this can be used is significantly controlled by wind speeds that disrupt uplift. Recently, average wind speeds have been decreasing suggesting that disruption may have decreased as well. If this continues or at least remains stable, together with similar or better snowfalls, the outlook is good for high level skiing at Cairngorm.
Obviously, an increase in wind speeds would cause more disruption in future and would probably have a negative impact on future skiing. However, high winds from the right direction during snowfall events can be a blessing. So its a complex set of processes that are operating here.
Personally, I think Scottish ski centres should be admired when you consider the more favourable climates that most other ski centres in the world operate in. However, the right set of weather conditions can and will present themselves and when they do, top class skiing can be enjoyed in Scotland. I like the look of the weather forecast for then next week or so- refreshing to get some cold continental air coming in to mix with the Atlantic weather systems and deliver lots of snow (hopefully). I know that I will be up in the highlands as soon as the more challenging runs are open.
Please feel free to read through my dissertation and any feedback would be very welcome. It may make more sense than this email as my hogmanay celebrations are probably limiting my ability to communicate effectively today! Many thanks for your help, I ended up getting a very good first class pass for my disseration. Im doing a Masters course now and may undertake a follow up disseration on skiing in scotland using computer modelling techniques to investigate weather patterns.
Kind regards
Andrew Weir (Edinburgh University)
January 9th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
Interesting to read of the noticed drop in maximum wind speeds. Like me you most likely remember the 60’s & 70’s when lots of snow was around and we were being told to expect Scotalnd to enter a mini ice age. Hasn’t come to pass. Now scientists are arguing about whether we are warming too quickly or whetehr the cause is due to a variation in the tilt of the earth’s axis to the sun which happens from time to time, usually a cycle outside of our life span. Here’s a thought - are wind farms having any effect on the average wind velocity through taking energy out of the winds? Lets hope whatever that there’s more snow. Best wishes for 2008 and a bumper season, even if it is a bit later. ps Statistics show that the weekends have the worst weather - unfortunately seems to be true these days.
February 22nd, 2008 at 3:03 am
bob hoskins filmography…
I Googled for something completely different, but found your page…and have to say thanks. nice read….